Economic Scan - Quebec: 2024
Demographics
Highlights
9.1 million people were living in Quebec in 2024, which was an increase of 6.8% since 2019.
The population of Quebec, with a median age of 42.6 years, is aging more than Canada as a whole (40.6 years).
- Quebec's demographic weight was 21.9% in Canada, compared to 22.6% five years ago.
- Proportionately, in 2024, Quebec had more people aged 65 and over (21.1% vs. 18.9%) and slightly fewer young people under 20 years old (20.7% vs. 20.8%) than the Canadian average.
- In 2034, one in four people (24.4%) will be 65 or older, representing an increase of 3.3 percentage points (pp) in 10 years, according to the fall 2024 reference scenario from the Institut de la statistique du Québec.
- The dependency ratio increased significantly since 2019, from 66.9% to 71.7% in 2024. This means that there are 72 people under 20 years old and 65 years of age or older per 100 people in the working-age population (aged 20 to 64) who are able to support them.
The number of employed immigrants in Quebec reached 1,072,300 in 2024, which is an increase of 9.4% compared to 2023. Among them, 193,800 are temporary, which is an increase of 36.2% compared to 2023. Conversely, employment fell by 1.4% for the non immigrant population.
In 2024, Quebec's population continued to grow thanks to positive net migration, despite announcements that admission criteria would be tightened to slow the influx of international students, immigrant workers and asylum claimants. Temporary immigration even surpassed the peak in the previous year, with an average of 566,800 non-permanent residents in the region in 2024, which was an increase of 37% in one year. However, the Government of Quebec admitted 59,500 permanent immigrants in line with its thresholds.
Nearly 47% of Quebecers (2021 census) reported having knowledge of both official languages. Just over 61% of those who are bilingual are concentrated in Montréal's census metropolitan area (CMA).
Indigenous people account for 2.5% of Quebecers (2021 census), which is 50% less than the rest of Canada's proportion (5.0%). The pandemic affected employment among Indigenous and non-Indigenous people in similar proportions, but the Indigenous population had a slower recovery.
Labour Market Conditions
In 2024…
Employment rose by +1.0%, particularly in the second half of the year
The number of unemployed people rose sharply (+21.3%) as a result of population growth
The employment rate dropped from 62.4% to 61.4%
The unemployment rate increased significantly from 4.5% to 5.3%
Unemployment rate
Show data table: Unemployment rate
| Year | Unemployment rate (%) |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 7.7 |
| 2016 | 7.2 |
| 2017 | 6.1 |
| 2018 | 5.5 |
| 2019 | 5.1 |
| 2020 | 8.,9 |
| 2021 | 6.1 |
| 2022 | 4.3 |
| 2023 | 4.5 |
| 2024 | 5.3 |
- In 2024, the labour market grew with an annual average of 4.6 million jobs, but at a slower pace. Employers added 43,200 jobs, which was the smallest increase since the pandemic, because they had limited hiring in the first half of the year in the wake of the 2023 economic slowdown.
- The labour force increased by 88,200 people (+1.9%), that is, more than double the jobs created, which was mainly due to population growth. Temporary immigration accounts for a significant portion of that growth.
- A growing labour force and weak job creation brought the unemployment rate to 5.3% (+0.8 pp), which had a more significant impact on young people aged 15 to 24 at 9.5% (+2.1 pp) and very recent immigrants at 11.3% (+1.8 pp).
- The average number of vacancies dropped by 27% to 133,000 for all of 2024, which was the lowest level since 2019. This drop, combined with an increase in the number of people who were unemployed, confirms that the labour market remained less tight and labour shortages were less prevalent.
Economic Conditions
Quebec's economic drivers in 2024
Robust recovery, but it faltered in the second half of the year
Slower job creation following the 2023 recession
Employment was mainly supported by the public sector
Lower inflation and interest rates, which were back to normal at the end of the year
Show data table: GDP Growth Rate
| GDP Growth Rate | |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 3.5% |
| 2023 | 0.6% |
| 2024 | 1.4% |
- In 2024, the economy recovered with 1.4% growth compared to 0.6% the previous year. The reduction in interest rates boosted consumption and ended the technical recession in 2023, thereby avoiding a major recession.
- This performance was due in part to population growth, with an increase in immigrants, particularly those who are temporary (workers, students, asylum claimants) who increased the population and boosted the economy in Quebec.
- The Bank of Canada's key interest rate continued to drop from 5% in January 2024 to 3% in January 2025, while inflation is now under control.
Main risks for Quebec's economy in 2025
- An economic recession due to U.S. tariffs and Canadian and international countermeasures could disrupt supply chains.
- Renewed inflationary pressure related to rising costs for businesses and consumers.
- Geopolitical and economic uncertainty related to the new American administration since January 2025 and ongoing global trade tensions.
- Simultaneous inflation and a recession would limit the Bank of Canada's ability to use its monetary tools effectively.
- A potential increase in the number of vacancies with less immigration in the context of an ongoing need for skilled labour despite a slowdown .
Provincial issues
Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariffs on Canadian products and the risk of a global economic slowdown will influence business decisions in 2025, thereby reducing investments and slowing down hiring.
The reduction in the number of available workers due to new immigration restrictions could mitigate the effect of tariffs on unemployment, but exacerbate recruitment difficulties in the sectors with labour shortages in Quebec.
Quebec's objective of balancing its budget in five years will curb spending growth, slow down projects and limit recruitment in the public sector, despite high needs in health care and education.
Industry Trends
Show data table :Employment change by industry (NAICS) in 2024
| Industry (NAICS) | Employment change |
|---|---|
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 7.4% (45.1k) |
| Wholesale | 5.8% (8.2k) |
| Transportation and Warehousing | 4.2% (9.2k) |
| Educational Services | 3.4% (11.7k) |
| Accommodation and food services | 3.3% (7.7k) |
| Construction | 3.1% (10.0k) |
| Professional, Scientific and Technical Services | 2.2% (8.3k) |
| Public administration | 1.3% (3.8k) |
| All Industries | 1.0% (43.2k) |
| Durables | -0.2% (-0.5k) |
| Other services | -0.3% (-0.5k) |
| Manufacturing | -0.8% (-4.2k) |
| Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing | -1.7% (-4.7k) |
| Non-durables | -1.8% (-3.7k) |
| Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas | -1.9% (-0.7k) |
| Agriculture | -2.5% (-1.3k) |
| SBusiness, Building and Other Support Services | -2.6% (-4.4k) |
| Utilities | -4.1% (-1.3k) |
| Retail | -4.9% (-25.7k) |
| Information, culture and recreation | -8.4% (-17.9k) |
- Overall, employment was up in 2024, but growth was more modest in the production of goods (0.3%) than in the services sector (1.1%).
- In services, the largest increases were observed in the public sector, mainly in health care and social assistance, which added 45,100 jobs and was equivalent to overall net job gains (+43,200). Educational services also saw growth with the creation of 11,700 jobs.
- Significant job gains were also recorded in construction (+10,000), transportation and warehousing (+9,200), professional, scientific and technical services (+8,300) and accommodation and food services (+7,700).
- However, the sectors that incurred the greatest losses include retail trade (-25,700) and information, culture and recreation (-17,900). In the latter sector, publishing (-8,800) and broadcasting (-8,700) were particularly affected.
Career Prospects
- Occupations with the best prospects in the 2024-2026 outlook are concentrated in the following broad occupational categories: health; education, law and social, community and government services; business, finance and administration; and natural and applied sciences.
- On the other hand, occupations with the most limited prospects are in the following sectors: sales and service; trades, transport and equipment operators; natural resources and agriculture; and manufacturing and utilities.
Regional Economic Conditions
- In 2024, most of the regions in Quebec had job gains, but the largest gains in proportion to regional employment were recorded in Mauricie (+5,3%; +6,700 jobs), Estrie (+5.0%; +8,300 jobs), Bas-Saint-Laurent (+4.6%; +4,500 jobs) and Abitibi-Témiscamingue (+4.5%; +3,300 jobs).
- In contrast to the previous year when most of the jobs had been created in Montréal and the surrounding areas, the Montréal region had the most significant setback with a loss of 7,300 jobs (-0.7%). The Montréal CMA lost 19,800 jobs in 2024 after a gain of 83,100 in 2023. However, in proportion to regional employment, Saguenay–Lac Saint Jean (-1.0%) and Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine (-1.3%) saw a bigger decline.
Show data table : Employment change in 2024
| Region | Employment change |
|---|---|
| Quebec as a whole | 1.0% (43.2k) |
| Mauricie | 5.3% (6.7k) |
| Estrie | 5.0% (8.3k) |
| Bas-Saint-Laurent | 4.6% (4.5k) |
| Abitibi-Témiscamingue | 4.5% (3.3k) |
| Chaudière-Appalaches | 3.5% (8.2k) |
| Centre-du-Québec | 1.9% (2.5k) |
| Laurentides | 1.6% (5.6k) |
| Outaouais | 1.2% (2.5k) |
| Côte-Nord & Nord-du-Québec | 1.2% (0.6k) |
| Lanaudière | 1.1% (3.1k) |
| Capitale-Nationale | 1.0% (4.1k) |
| Laval | 0.9% (2.2k) |
| Montérégie | 0.1% (0.8k) |
| Montréal | -0.7% (-7.3k) |
| Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean | -1.0% (-1.4k) |
| Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine | -1.3% (-0.5k) |
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